After Australia’s recent collapses against a pathetic England team in 2 final games, and against New Zealand in the Chappell-Hadlee series, the field is wide open in the coming World Cup.
I think Australia is still the favorite but I don’t think they are the clear favorites and more importantly, other teams are now believing in themselves that they can beat the Aussies, if at all self-confidence was a factor.
In general, based on current form I think South Africa has the best chance to win it all, followed by Sri Lanka, Australia and India. Yes, I have removed New Zealand from the equation simply because they are really inconsistent in their performances. When they win, they are the best team on the planet, but the very next day they can look like Kenya or something.
The way the groups are set up, my thoughts on how the competition will unfold:
Group A – Australia, South Africa, Netherlands, Scotland
Group B – India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bermuda (Sri Lanka vs Bermuda may break the record for the highest score in a one day international!)
Group C – New Zealand, England, Kenya, Canada
Group D – Pakistan, West Indies, Zimbabwe, Ireland
Semis would then pit India, Sri Lanka, South Africa and Pakistan/Australia
India will beat Sri Lanka and South Africa will beat either Pakistan or Australia
And finally, South Africa will beat India to win the World Cup 2007
Drat! I will have to watch pretty much the whole thing! 🙂
Oh yea, signed up with willow.tv already.
Cross posted at Desicritics.org
Romit's Stream 
Aussie win is ruled out (they just cant do it again). :-)India – hmm… they do have the right team, bowlers would be watched closely and would have to deliver.SA – You never know them. They play by the book and have perfected the game (though they might not have won as many tournaments).SL – I bet they are a good team. Their bowling attack is one of the best and they’ve been playing some superb cricket in the past few months.I believe it would be SL this year.
@rajesh: yea, SL has a good shot, but I do believe that they have really off days sometimes and that’s why predicting them to win it all is tough because there are so many matches and there could be one or two bad days which can completely throw them off. SA on the other hand is probably the most consistent team as of today and they should continue to perform well if they stay healthy.
What you say makes sense. Of course, as they say, its a game of glorious uncertainties and all that.. :-)So with respect to the teams that you mention, if they have their good days, they can do it, as you say. On the other hand.. SL batting seems to be centred around a good Jayasuriya blast and a Sangakarra stay at crease. If they both fail, the rest are not as good, for setting up a win. Considering that Jayawardene is out of form. Atapattu had his better days and Arnold is tense about making a comeback. So there are weaknesses there. If Murali does not deliver on WI pitches, then the rest are again good, average bowlers, with Vaas having a larger experience, thats all. SA is a great TEAM, and few heroes – Kallis, Smith, Pollock, Gibbs on his day, Boucher, Ntini. So yes, they have a great chance. Time and again, they have been done in by their bad luck, to the extent that they may actually have self doubts whether they can win a big one at all. But otherwise, yes, a good team which can take it all.Australia of course, will be wounded lions. And while I also do not think they can make it three in a row, heck, they are capable to putting in super performances. And in Ponting, they probably have the best batsman in the world today, and in Hussey, the best batsman in the world tomorrow 🙂 The bowling is going to be the weakness especially if Lee does not return and McGrath struggles.. I would not count out West Indies, New Zealand and of course, Pakistan, to provide their share of surprises.
@spm: I understand what you are saying. I would disagree though, that South Africa has confidence issues. If anyone, I think it is New Zealand who may have confidence issues especially at such a high level. That World Cup in Australia was their best chance with Martin Crowe and Greatbatch and Dipak Patel, to win the whole thing. They came very close but did not do it. I feel they cannot go through all the way because they are not consistent enough. Just the opposite holds for SA – they are just too consistent. WI and Pak may cause some ripples here and there but both have some in-team issues which will cause their downfall.
All the “issues” that teams have, be it confidence or ‘in-team’, if these cause the occasional failure, but inspite of that, if the team concerned can make it to the semis, then its anybody’s world cup! Those last two matches, the teams with issues may not have those affect them, on the day, and they may yet sail through. So I am just giving that kind of ‘outside’ chance to teams like NZ or WI or Pak.The excitement of the forthcoming event generates such speculation! I don’t grudge them their millions at all (unlike some of the Indian media) because they keep us so engaged – they must deserve it, I suppose!
@spm: Yes, you are right. Once you get to the semis, it is anyone’s game. But in cases when you have to forecast, you tend to go with probabilities and I went without NZ, WI and Pak because they have issues which in general make me less confident about their progress. That’s it. Let’s get the games going now!!